Climate Scientist: Don't Reopen North Sea Drilling
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- Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL, argues the UK government must resist calls from Reform and the Conservative party to expand North Sea oil and gas drilling
- The North Sea basin is past peak production with only limited oil and gas remaining, and energy security depends on accelerating the move to renewables rather than new drilling
- The UK is struggling to meet a 2030 emissions reduction target of 68% versus 1990 levels and is already off track for net zero by 2050, with any fossil fuel renaissance undermining these commitments
- A Nature paper published a week after the bombing of Iran began found global heating has nearly doubled since 2015, now running at close to 0.35C per decade — meaning the 2C limit could be shattered as soon as the late 2030s without drastic action
- The world is on course to breach the 1.5C climate guardrail within three years, the threshold at which key tipping points — most notably the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets — would be crossed
- Gas still accounted for almost one-third of UK electricity generation in 2025, and globally fossil fuels provided 59% of electricity supply in 2024, figures McGuire says must fall, not rise
- Early 2026 brought record-breaking heat across much of the US and devastating floods in Hawaii, northern Australia, Oman, and the UAE, with February the warmest on record in England and Wales
Why it matters: The UK faces a binding 2030 deadline to cut emissions 68% from 1990 levels but is already off track. Expanding North Sea drilling would deepen reliance on a basin past peak production and undermine climate commitments as global heating accelerates to nearly 0.35C per decade — with the 1.5C breach possible within three years.
