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US prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding into climate betting, with Kalshi reporting 500% growth in weather wagers to a $1.1bn market, while scientists call the practice distracting and the UN concedes the 1.5C target is now out of reach.

What is a key fact in this story? (1)

**Kalshi** reported 500% growth in weather and climate wagers over the past year, taking that market to $1.1bn, and is now partnering with the Weather Company — which owns the Weather Channel — to boost credibility in the new arena.

What is a key fact in this story? (2)

**Polymarket** and Kalshi have banned betting on wildfires after large wagers were placed on last year's Los Angeles fires, citing concerns about unintended incentives for would-be arsonists.

📎 SkimNews has covered Kalshi 37+ times · see the file →

Prediction Markets Now Take Bets on Climate Disasters — SkimNews

By The Guardian Environment · Summarized & edited by Kapil Samant · 2026-09-25

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Kalshi reported 500% growth in weather and climate wagers over the past year, taking that market to $1.1bn, and is now partnering with the Weather Company — which owns the Weather Channel — to boost credibility in the new arena.
Polymarket and Kalshi have banned betting on wildfires after large wagers were placed on last year's Los Angeles fires, citing concerns about unintended incentives for would-be arsonists.
Kaitlyn Trudeau of Climate Central called the bets "depressing" and distracting from climate action; Kalshi frames itself instead as providing "well-calibrated forecasting data" on temperature, floods and other environmental outcomes.
The United Nations recently conceded that the foundational 1.5C global temperature target — set just a decade ago — is now effectively unreachable due to rapid, unrestrained global heating.
Feedback loops from thawing permafrost, supersized wildfires and overheating wetlands could add as much as 0.4C to global temperatures and accelerate overall heating by up to 30%, per a recent study, while the RCP8.5 worst-case scenario is now unlikely thanks to clean energy gains.

Why it matters: Kalshi's climate-wager market grew 500% to $1.1bn as the UN conceded the 1.5C target is effectively unreachable. Climate scientists argue the bets trivialize suffering and distract from action — they do not reduce climate risk, while the markets frame themselves as forecasting tools.