USMNT vs. Mexico prediction, odds, time: Expert reveals soccer picks for Oct. 3 international friendly — SkimNews
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- USMNT faces Mexico on Saturday, Oct. 3, at 10 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, with Mexico the narrow 90-minute money-line favorite at +140 versus the USA at +180 and a draw at +250.
- Jon Eimer of SportsLine is picking the over on 2.5 total goals, grounding the call in data: the USMNT has scored two or more goals in four of six 2026 friendlies while Mexico has outscored opponents 17-4 across 10 friendlies this year.
- USMNT enters on a two-win streak after beating Peru 4-1 on Sept. 26 and Chile 4-2 on Tuesday, while Mexico arrives off back-to-back 1-1 draws against Colombia and Peru.
- Sebastian Berhalter has scored two goals this week and four across 20-plus USMNT appearances, and Mexico captain Johan Vasquez has two goals in his last four matches.
- Mexico leads the all-time series 38-17-24, and the USMNT outscored opponents 11-8 at the World Cup in their most recent competitive run.
Why it matters: Eimer's over-2.5 call is anchored in two concrete data points from the source: the USMNT scoring 2+ in 4 of 6 2026 friendlies and Mexico posting a 17-4 goal differential across 10 friendlies. With Mexico just a +140 favorite despite the USMNT's recent 8-goal burst, bettors may find sharper value in the total than in picking a winner on the money line.
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