Oregon vs. USC prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 college football Saturday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Oregon Ducks (ranked 20th, 2-1) face the USC Trojans (ranked 12th, 4-0) at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, marking Oregon's first Big Ten game of the season.
- Oregon opened as a 5.5-point favorite but the line has moved to Oregon -3.5, with the over/under set at 60.5 total points.
- SportsLine's Projection Model, upgraded for 2026 to factor in the transfer portal, is 22-19 on top-rated CFB money-line picks and projects 58 combined points, hitting the Under in 61% of 10,000 simulations.
- USC QB Jayden Maiava leads the Big Ten with 1,173 passing yards and 12 touchdowns; the model projects him for 268 pass yards and 2.4 TDs against Oregon.
- Oregon QB Dante Moore is projected for 266 yards and 2 TDs, with wideout Evan Stewart projected to catch 7 passes for 78 yards.
- Oregon has won four straight meetings in the series and is 9-0 in Big Ten road games under head coach Dan Lanning.
Why it matters: The model's Under pick cuts against both offenses' recent output — USC has scored 39-49 points in every game and Maiava tops the Big Ten in passing yards — but the projection credits two Top-60 total defenses with enough stops to keep the total under 60.5. Oregon's line shift from -5.5 to -3.5 signals the market is less convinced in the Ducks after their 39-31 home loss to Oklahoma State, giving bettors a documented 22-19 model to track.
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