Every Modern War Fails Its Political Test
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- The author argues that US wars since WWII — Korea (draw), Vietnam (defeat), Somalia (humiliating withdrawal), Kosovo (draw), Iraq and Afghanistan (costly defeats) — have largely failed to achieve political objectives, with the first Gulf War of 1991 as the lone clear victory.
- Donald Trump's "foolish assault on Iran" is called a "strategic disaster," while Pete Hegseth's campaign against alleged Latin American drug smugglers is described as "murderous," costing billions, killing innocents, and violating international law.
- Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has become a "costly quagmire," yielding only about 20% of Ukraine's original territory after four years and hundreds of thousands of casualties, with Putin having misjudged Ukrainian resistance and Western support.
- Israel's military campaigns — including the "genocide in Gaza" and reoccupation of southern Lebanon — have failed to eliminate Hamas or Hezbollah, with the author warning endless war is turning Israel into a "pariah state" and threatening its US relationship.
- China is identified as the strategic winner by staying out of these wars and building power at home through scientific and technological dominance, trade, investment, and green-tech provision.
- Nuclear weapons, nationalism, and globalization are cited as structural reasons wars cannot achieve decisive political objectives: nuclear deterrence limits major-power conflict, nationalism makes societies fight tenaciously, and even incorporating Taiwan would add only 5% to China's GDP.
Why it matters: The pattern across three continents is hard to dismiss: US forever wars ended in defeat, Russia's Ukraine invasion yielded only 20% of territory after four years at a cost of hundreds of thousands of casualties, and Israel's campaigns have failed to remove Hamas or Hezbollah. The Clausewitzian test — can war still serve a clear political objective at reasonable cost? — flunks in every case the essay examines.
