Al-Shabaab Reclaims Central Somalia, Forcing Stalemate
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- Al-Shabaab staged a major comeback in 2025, retaking most of Middle Shabelle and Hiraan after the government seized those areas in 2022-2023 by partnering with clan militias known as macawisley.
- Al-Shabaab overhauled its playbook ahead of the February 2025 offensive, replacing leaders, signing non-aggression pacts with former macawisley opponents, and assuring residents of central Somalia they would face no reprisals upon takeover.
- Somali government forces, backed by the African Union mission, U.S. air support, and Turkish assistance, succeeded in pushing Al-Shabaab out of towns along the Shabelle river in Lower Shabelle, halting its push toward Mogadishu.
- The federal government in Mogadishu is grappling with mounting political infighting and dwindling foreign aid, including a planned drawdown of the AU support mission that has long anchored the country's security architecture.
- Crisis Group recommends Mogadishu overhaul military training and retention, bring federal member states into counter-insurgency planning, encourage humanitarian aid delivery into Al-Shabaab-held areas, and lay groundwork for eventual political dialogue.
- The 2026 Somali elections are positioning themselves as a potential reset point, with Crisis Group suggesting a new administration could refocus on the insurgency after the politically turbulent electoral cycle concludes.
Why it matters: The stalemate matters because the AU mission that has long propped up Somali security is winding down just as foreign partners grow disillusioned and Mogadishu's government is consumed by electoral politics in 2026. With Al-Shabaab now leaning on persuasion rather than pure coercion to entrench its rule, the next administration inherits both a shrinking international safety net and a smarter adversary.
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