NDSU Win Total Set at 8.5 in First FBS Season
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- North Dakota State's 2026 win total is set at 8.5 overall and 5.5 in conference, with the Bison listed at +300 to win the Mountain West title behind UNLV (+260) and New Mexico (+265) and -130 just to reach the title game.
- Cole Payton and Bryce Lance — NDSU's star QB (FCS-best 12.1 yards/attempt, school-record 193.8 efficiency) and Walter Payton Award finalist WR (51 catches, 1,079 yards, 8 TDs) — were both selected in the 2026 NFL Draft (5th round Eagles, 4th round Saints), leaving Nathan Hayes as the new starting quarterback.
- NDSU lost three defensive starters to the transfer portal — end Toby Anene (Colorado), linebacker Nathaniel Staehling (Michigan), and cornerback Jailen Duffie (UCF) — despite leading the FCS in total defense (251.8 yards) and scoring defense (13.0) last season.
- The Mountain West is down to 10 schools after Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State defected to the new-look Pac-12; NDSU and Northern Illinois join as football-only members.
- NDSU finished 12-1 last year, won 10 of the past 15 FCS national championships, and saw its FCS-record streak of 15 straight quarterfinal appearances snapped by Illinois State in the second round.
- The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts NDSU at 8.2 wins with a 21.8% chance at the Mountain West title and only an 11.1% shot at 10-plus regular-season wins; the author recommends Under 9.5 wins at -225 on DraftKings' alternate total.
- NDSU opens Aug. 29 at home against Jacksonville State as a 7.5-point favorite — a rematch of the 2015 FCS Championship Game — then visits Air Force on Sept. 12 in its first Mountain West matchup.
Why it matters: The Bison face a brutal first FBS transition: replacing an NFL-drafted QB-WR duo while losing three defensive starters to Power Conference programs via the transfer portal. The SportsLine model gives them just an 11.1% chance of clearing 10 wins, yet bettors can still grab +300 on a Mountain West title the roster probably can't support.
