SpaceX Stock Below IPO as $1.4T Valuation Meets Q2 Earnings
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- SpaceX (SPCX) enters Q2 earnings with a $1.4T valuation the author calls "stretched," while shares trade below their IPO price after previously touching peaks topping $2 trillion and approaching $3 trillion.
- SPCX revenue growth expectations rest on short-term, high-value AI compute contracts with Anthropic and Google — both cancellable on short notice, per the author.
- Consensus analyst estimates require SpaceX to nearly triple revenues by Q4; sustainability of those AI contracts and long-term growth are flagged as uncertain.
- Accelerated IPO lockup expirations following Q2 earnings are expected to compound selling pressure on shares already trading below their IPO price.
- Author Stone Fox Capital (Mark Holder) maintains a bearish stance and recommends investors wait for a confirmed bottom before entering the stock.
Why it matters: Consensus requires SpaceX to nearly triple revenues by Q4 per the author, yet that growth rides on AI compute deals with Anthropic and Google that are explicitly cancellable on short notice — a single lost contract could collapse the revenue narrative. Post-Q2 IPO lockup expirations add another layer of mechanical selling pressure on a stock already trading below its IPO price.
