Cowboys vs. Packers prediction, spread, odds, time: 'Sunday Night Football' picks from advanced model — SkimNews
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- SportsLine model has simulated Cowboys-Packers 10,000 times and projects 54 combined points, with the Over 53.5 hitting 52% of simulations; the model is on a 57-46 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024 and up more than $5,000 for $100 players.
- Packers are 1.5-point favorites (-112 money line) over the Cowboys at Lambeau Field with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET, and the over/under of 53.5 is the highest of any Week 6 game after rising 3 points since opening.
- Jordan Love is completing 60.5% of his passes for 1,408 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions through five starts, with Christian Watson serving as his top target (26 catches, 474 yards, six TDs, eight explosive plays of 20-plus yards including an 81-yard long).
- Dak Prescott is completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,381 yards, nine TDs and three interceptions in five games, with CeeDee Lamb leading Dallas in receiving (39 catches, 507 yards, four TDs).
- Cowboys defense ranks 31st in the NFL in total yards allowed at 395.4 per game and 25th in scoring at 27.2 points per game, while the Over has hit in nine of Dallas's last 10 games and seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings with Green Bay.
- Packers own a 10-1-1 record over the last 12 meetings between the two teams, though Dallas and Green Bay played to a 40-40 tie last season; the model also has one side of the spread hitting in 60% of simulations.
- Cowboys enter at 2-3 after a 24-16 home loss to Tampa Bay, while Packers are 3-2 coming off a 31-7 win over Chicago and sit second in the NFC North.
Why it matters: Bettors leaning on SportsLine's model get a narrow 52% edge on the Over despite the highest total of Week 6 — a number propped up by Dallas's league-worst-tier pass defense (31st in total yards, 25th in points allowed) facing a Packers offense that scored 31 last week. With the model's spread pick hitting at 60%, the side matters as much as the total for anyone sizing a card on the Week 6 prime-time game.
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