Dave Richard's 2026 QB Draft Strategy: Steal a Quarterback
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- Dave Richard reversed his fantasy quarterback strategy for 2026, shifting from his 2024-25 advice to take a QB at a good value to a new mandate to "steal" one, because enough QBs have a top-five bull case to cover every roster in 10- or 12-team leagues.
- Richard identified six traits for a starter-worthy QB, calling rushing "a massive difference-maker" that can supersede several other qualities, alongside demonstrated accuracy to all areas, at least two good pass-catchers, a pass-friendly red-zone offense, a non-disastrous offensive line, and 22+ points per game in six-point TD leagues (18+ in four-point).
- Patrick Mahomes was singled out as a prime late-round steal worth drafting after pick 110, with Kyler Murray and Malik Willis also named as late-round "blue-chip quarterbacks with enormous upside."
- Matthew Stafford was nearly 5.5 points per game worse in four-point TD leagues than six-point formats, compared to roughly 3 points worse for Josh Allen and just 2 points worse for Jaxson Dart — proof that rushing-heavy QBs lose less value in four-point scoring.
- Richard recommended drafting two QBs only in deeper leagues (14+ teams) where waiver supply is thin, while 10-team or smaller leagues should rely on the wire; in 12-teamers the decision depends on how many leaguemates draft two QBs.
- Richard argued that taking a QB early sacrifices better value at RB, WR, or TE, noting that mid-to-late-round picks Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye finished nearly as well as early-rounder Josh Allen last season, with the caveat that smaller leagues (10 or fewer teams) are the only scenario where an early QB is acceptable.
- Richard warned drafters not to pass on a mid-round "steal" like Allen falling to Round 4 out of stubbornness, writing that doing so would simply help a leaguemate and leave points on the table.
Why it matters: Richard's explicit reversal — from "take a QB at good value" to "steal one" — tells 2026 fantasy drafters that QB depth is unusually rich, meaning managers who burn an early pick on a quarterback lose RB/WR/TE value while still finding near-elite production in the mid-to-late rounds, exactly as Stafford and Maye demonstrated last season.
