EDF: Clean Power Growth Slows as Fossil Pipeline Rebounds — SkimNews
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- EDF reported that planned natural gas project capacity is now comparable to solar and wind on a capacity-factor basis, with fossil capacity potentially reaching a market share not seen since the early 2010s as utilities recalibrate toward dispatchable resources.
- Federal policy shifts — coal subsidies, repealed greenhouse gas regulations, rollback of clean energy tax credits, and permitting barriers for clean energy — are increasingly incentivizing fossil fuel generation, per EDF.
- Natural gas deployment faces headwinds from turbine shortages and price volatility, with EDF's David Villagrana noting rising costs and longer build times are already pushing some developers to consider clean alternatives that come online faster.
- Clean energy project cancellations have climbed since 2022, with nearly 5% of a planned 281.7 GW canceled in 2025, while fossil fuel project cancellations dropped in 2024 and remained low through the first half of 2026.
- The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), introduced in the Senate Sept. 30, would prevent revocation of federal energy permits, create a right to sue over "disparate" federal treatment by project type, and speed permitting through NEPA changes; Sierra Club opposes it as weakening environmental laws while Citizens' Climate Lobby supports it.
- Wood Mackenzie (Oct. 8 analysis) found gas generation investment is entering a "supply deficit cycle through the late 2030s" driven by data center load growth, keeping thermal capital costs elevated and reinforcing the economic case for renewables and storage.
- Energy Innovation (June analysis) calculated that a 2022-style spike in coal and gas prices would push up U.S. electricity costs by $40.5 billion per year under a fossil-heavy scenario.
Why it matters: Ratepayers face the largest exposure from a fossil-heavy buildout: Energy Innovation estimates a 2022-style coal/gas price spike would add $40.5 billion in annual electricity costs, and EDF flags turbine supply constraints as already inflating gas plant capital costs. Data center load growth guarantees new generation either way, but the federal policy tilt toward fossil could lock utilities into 30-year fuel-price exposure just as Wood Mackenzie's own analysis shows gas economics eroding through the late 2030s.
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