Markets flip for Fed rate-hike pause into CPI: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin hit month-to-date highs of $65,420 into Sunday's close, with the 50-month EMA at $65,827 acting as the key overhead resistance bulls need to break, per TradingView data.
- CME FedWatch showed a 56% probability of a Fed pause at the September 16 FOMC meeting — a sharp reversal from a week earlier when markets priced a 0.25% rate hike as the most likely outcome.
- July CPI and PPI prints due Wednesday and Thursday arrive after last month's CPI saw its largest monthly decline since April 2020 and nonfarm payrolls came in weaker than expected, reinforcing dovish expectations.
- The Japanese yen has reversed days after the first joint US-Japanese intervention since the late 1990s, weakening back above 158.50 per dollar toward the key 160 level; Brookings' Robin Brooks warned such interventions have historically failed to reverse the trend.
- Bitcoin whale wallets (holding >10,000 BTC) added 46,420 BTC to their 60-day rolling balance on Aug. 9 — nearly double the 23,238 BTC peak from mid-March — while smaller wallets (0.1–1 BTC) shed roughly 9,700 BTC over the same period, per CryptoQuant.
- Glassnode's Rafael Schultze-Kraft called Bitcoin spot markets "virtually dead," noting the daily spot turnover ratio sits at 0.32% — the lowest in the platform's data — while dollar volume is down roughly 64% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Whales stacking 46,420 BTC while retail distributes and spot turnover hits a record low of 0.32% means any breakout through $65,800 is being driven by a thin market and hinges on macro catalysts rather than organic demand — making Wednesday's CPI the highest-stakes inflation print of the quarter for BTC positioning.
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