Markets flip for Fed rate-hike pause into CPI: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Bitcoin spiked to new month-to-date highs of $65,420 into Sunday's weekly close, with the $65,800 level — the 50-month EMA — serving as crucial resistance that bulls need to break, per crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe.
- Markets flipped expectations from a September Fed rate hike to a 56% probability of a continued pause, per CME's FedWatch Tool, ahead of Wednesday's July CPI and Thursday's July PPI releases.
- Last month's CPI posted its largest monthly decline since April 2020, while nonfarm payrolls showed weaker-than-expected labor conditions — both bolstering dovish Fed bets, though Mosaic Asset Company noted ISM data showed the US economy 'holding up just fine.'
- The Japanese yen weakened back above 158.50 per dollar — closing in on the key 160 level — just days after the first joint US-Japanese intervention since the late 1990s, with Brookings' Robin Brooks warning the intervention 'will fail to stop the yen's weakening trend.'
- Large BTC wallets (10,000+ BTC) increased their balance by 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9 — the largest 60-day rolling uptick since March 15 and nearly double the mid-March peak — while retail wallets (0.1–1 BTC) distributed 9,700 BTC over the same period, per CryptoQuant.
- Bitcoin spot markets show 'textbook apathy' with daily turnover at just 0.32% (the lowest in Glassnode's data) and dollar volume down ~64% year-over-year, per Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft.
Why it matters: With Bitcoin spot turnover at a record-low 0.32% and dollar volume down 64% year-over-year, the $65,800 resistance level has become a high-stakes pivot where thin liquidity meets concentrated short-side positions — meaning the upcoming CPI print will determine whether large-wallet accumulation translates into a real breakout or fizzles into range-bound consolidation.
Ask SkimNews
