SportsLine Model Flags 2026 Fantasy Football Busts: Montgomery, Cook
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and released fantasy football rankings identifying busts, sleepers, and breakouts ahead of drafts beginning in less than two weeks.
- David Montgomery is projected as a bust after moving from Detroit's high-volume touchdown-scoring offense to Houston, where the model expects him to split snaps with Woody Marks despite an ADP around pick No. 51.
- James Cook, coming off an RB6 finish last season, is ranked only RB10 by the model — behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown — due to a higher fumble rate, limited pass-catching role, and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture in Buffalo's offense.
- The model correctly predicted Terry McLaurin's 2025 collapse (career-low 582 receiving yards and 3 TDs, down from roughly 1,100 yards and 13 TDs the prior year), and has a track record calling A.J. Brown (2020 sleeper), Jonathan Taylor (2021), C.J. Stroud (2024 fade), Derrick Henry (2019), and Christian McCaffrey/Alvin Kamara (2018).
- The model is also fading one of the first six wide receivers off early draft boards, ranking him barely inside the top 10 at his position rather than as a first-round pick.
- Top 2026 ADP (PPR, via CBS): Jahmyr Gibbs (1.21), Bijan Robinson (1.96), Ja'Marr Chase (4.15), Jonathan Taylor (5.12), Puka Nacua (5.26), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.85), Christian McCaffrey (7.53), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9.15), James Cook (10.22), De'Von Achane (11.51), Chase Brown (12.26), Derrick Henry (13.08).
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters spending a fourth- or fifth-round pick on Montgomery or a first-round pick on Cook are paying premium prices for players the model says will underperform their ADPs, with Cook's RB6 finish last year masking fumble and touchdown-vulture risks that could repeat in 2026.
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