Oil returns to pre-Iran war levels as Hormuz traffic
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- Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 a barrel — the price recorded the day before US and Israel struck Iran on 28 February — before edging back up to $73.23.
- The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June setting a 60-day negotiation window on Tehran's nuclear programme, and crude has moved sharply lower since, per the source.
- Kpler data shows 284 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz from 18 June to the latest count, still well below the pre-conflict daily average of roughly 138 crossings, with hundreds of ships still waiting in the Gulf.
- US-Iran talks in Switzerland last weekend produced a partial lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the establishment of a US-Iran communication line brokered by Qatar and Pakistan to keep Hormuz shipping safe.
- Trump ordered an investigation into Shell, ExxonMobil and other major energy firms on Wednesday, accusing them of 'gouging' drivers as US regular gasoline fell to roughly $3.93 a gallon — still well above pre-war levels after hitting $4 in April, its highest since 2022.
- The American Petroleum Institute pushed back, telling reporters fuel prices 'don't move in lockstep with crude oil,' while the UK competition watchdog said last month it found no widespread evidence of unfair petrol price hikes after February.
Why it matters: Consumers are not yet seeing proportional relief at the pump — US regular gasoline is still well above pre-war levels even as crude has round-tripped, which is why Trump is now using the bully pulpit (and the threat of an investigation) against Shell and ExxonMobil over a roughly $0.07-plus-per-gallon spread that the industry says is normal. Meanwhile the diplomatic thaw is doing real supply-chain work: 284 Hormuz transits since 18 June show the route is reopening, but with daily volume still a fraction of the 138-ship pre-war norm, full recovery is not here yet.
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