Bitcoin recovery rests on US-Iran deal as momentum remains weak
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- LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's recovery "lacks conviction," with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics despite the price reclaiming $67,000
- Ruck warned that a breakdown of the US-Iran peace deal would put Bitcoin on a "volatile path," initially drawing bids as a hedge before broader risk-off flows push it toward key support zones
- President Trump said Sunday the US has completed a peace deal with Iran that is expected to be signed on Friday, with terms including the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the US lifting its blockade of the Strait and Iran's ports
- The deal triggers 60 days of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief, per the Associated Press
- Swissblock data shows Bitcoin's price momentum at -1 and on-balance volume at -1.7 million — the lowest in years — both still negative even after the recovery, a sequence consistent with a bear market where price typically breaks lower next
- Bitcoin had already begun retreating from Monday's intraday high, dropping below $66,000 in early Tuesday trading, after falling below $60,000 on June 6
Why it matters: Bitcoin has bounced roughly 13% from its June 6 low below $60,000 to above $67,000, but the technical setup tells a different story: momentum and volume indicators from Swissblock are still at multi-year bear-market lows, meaning the rally is built on thin air until they flip positive. The added fragility: the catalyst traders are counting on — Trump's Friday-signing US-Iran deal — is unsignaled, and its collapse would test Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge before likely dragging it down with broader risk-off flows.
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