Robinhood in Talks With Crypto.com on Prediction Markets
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- Robinhood is negotiating with Crypto.com to expand its prediction markets offering with event contracts supplied by the exchange, per a Friday WSJ report citing people familiar with the matter.
- Kalshi initially facilitated Robinhood's prediction markets hub when it launched in March 2025, helping the firm meet CFTC regulatory requirements; ForecastEx and Rotella were added later.
- Bernstein raised its Robinhood (HOOD) price target from $130 to $160 per share, citing the company's outlook for prediction markets and tokenized equities.
- Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction markets revenue could reach $1.7 billion by 2028 and that overall prediction market volumes could hit $1 trillion by 2030.
- CFTC claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction market event contracts, while state gaming authorities in multiple states have filed lawsuits to block or restrict the platforms' activities.
Why it matters: Adding Crypto.com as a second event-contract supplier reduces Robinhood's single-counterparty dependency on Kalshi and broadens its prediction markets catalog. Bernstein's $160 price target and $1.7 billion revenue projection by 2028 signal Wall Street treats the expansion as material to HOOD's valuation — while unresolved state-versus-CFTC jurisdictional fights remain the core legal overhang on the entire $1 trillion volume thesis.
