10-Year Yield Hits 4.7% as Brent Crude Crosses $100
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.7% on Thursday, the highest level since January 2025, as oil prices climbed amid escalating Middle East conflict and concerns about mounting debt and sticky inflation.
- 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.19%, its highest since May, notching its longest stretch above 5% since 2007 — the year before the financial crisis.
- Brent crude futures on the Intercontinental Exchange jumped to $100 per barrel on Thursday after reports of tank strikes off the coast of Saudi Arabia amid escalating US-Iran fighting.
- Yardeni Research said at least one rate hike remains the base case for 2026, even after the June CPI report reduced the Fed's urgency to raise rates.
- Polymarket bettors assigned a 71% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting growing expectations that rising oil will force the Fed to tighten rather than cut.
- Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, attributed equity resilience to low ten-day realized volatility and rising earnings estimates, even as yields held above 4.65% and crude sat at $87 earlier in the week.
Why it matters: The 10-year at 4.7% directly raises the benchmark for mortgage and loan rates, hitting consumers and refinancing prospects. With Yardeni Research still calling a rate hike the base case for 2026 and Polymarket pricing 71% odds on one, the bond market is increasingly betting the Fed will tighten — not cut — if oil feeds through to consumer prices and stalls progress toward 2% inflation.
