Treasury Yields Flat as Trump-Iran Feud Builds Before CPI
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- 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — rose less than 1 basis point to 4.701%
- 30-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to geopolitical events, climbed less than 1 basis point to 5.25%
- 2-year Treasury yield dipped less than 1 basis point to 4.23%, typically tracking short-term Federal Reserve rate decisions
- Middle East peace hopes faded after Trump responded to Iranian reparations demands by saying Tehran must instead pay the U.S. compensation
- Oil prices settled near flat after initially spiking on Trump's claim the U.S. now controls the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI at roughly $82/barrel and Brent at roughly $87/barrel
- Monday's bond session saw both the 10-year and 30-year yields jump 4 basis points as traders absorbed the geopolitical developments
- Wednesday's inflation data — the core monthly and yearly July print — and Tuesday's existing home sales release (expected at 4.04 million, down from 4.09 million) are the next catalysts
Why it matters: With the 30-year at 5.25% and the 10-year near 4.70%, even sub-basis-point moves reprice mortgages and long-dated corporate borrowing costs. Trump's reversal on Iran reparations — from extracting a peace deal to demanding Tehran compensate Washington — injects fresh geopolitical risk into the inflation outlook, leaving Fed officials with murkier signals ahead of Wednesday's core CPI release.
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