California's 5% Billionaire Tax Heads to November Vote
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- California voters will decide in November on a one-time 5% tax on residents and trusts with net worth over $1 billion — the first such U.S. measure — pushed onto the ballot by the SEIU to offset healthcare cuts in Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill.'
- Gavin Newsom, the governor eyeing a 2028 presidential run, has vehemently opposed the measure, writing that 'wealth is movable, and it shops for the state with the lowest taxes'; Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra also opposes it, as does Republican nominee Steve Hilton, who said it would 'destroy' the state.
- David Gamage, the University of Missouri law professor who helped craft the proposal for SEIU, pointed to Norway as proof the fears are overblown — noting that despite a 518% surge in wealthy departures in 2022-2023, Norway's economy is doing 'quite well' and still running a budget surplus.
- Sergey Brin has already relocated his primary residence to Nevada and poured tens of millions into a nonprofit backing a rival ballot measure designed to effectively neuter the wealth tax.
- Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, could face a nearly $8 billion tax bill if the measure passes, but told reporters in January he is 'perfectly fine with it'; businessman Tom Steyer, who ran for governor in June, also campaigned on taxing 'billionaires like me.'
- The state's nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office projects tens of billions of dollars in initial revenue but warns of losses of 'hundreds of millions of dollars or more per year' as departing billionaires take their income taxes with them.
- Other jurisdictions are watching: Washington and Massachusetts have already targeted the wealthy with tax measures, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has pushed through a pied-a-terre tax on expensive homes while advancing a broader tax-the-rich agenda.
Why it matters: California's Legislative Analyst projects tens of billions in upfront revenue but warns of ongoing losses as billionaires depart — and Sergey Brin has already moved to Nevada, proving the flight risk is real, not hypothetical. With both leading gubernatorial candidates opposing the tax, its passage depends on a coalition of billionaires like Huang and Steyer (for it) outvoting Brin's network (against it) against the political establishment.
