Nvidia Earnings Take a Back Seat to March GTC
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- Nvidia is set to report fiscal Q4 earnings Wednesday, with FactSet consensus calling for adjusted EPS of $1.54 on $66.1 billion in revenue, including $60.7 billion from data centers.
- BNP Paribas analyst David O'Connor expects a "quite positive" tone but warns the print won't be a major catalyst, since Nvidia already disclosed $500 billion in cumulative revenue visibility and is saving market-moving updates for GTC in March.
- Nvidia stock is up just 2% year-to-date, trailing the PHLX Semiconductor Index's 16% gain, as recent strong earnings have been met with "shrugs — or worse" from investors.
- HSBC analyst Frank Lee forecasts strong GPU demand, noting Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are budgeting a combined $650 billion for AI infrastructure this year; Nvidia's neocloud partners CoreWeave and Nebius Group will also offer a read-through on spending health.
- Google's tensor processing units, co-developed with Broadcom, are emerging as custom-chip competition that has investors questioning Nvidia's AI chip dominance.
- Investors are watching for management commentary on gross margins given soaring memory component prices, per BNP's O'Connor.
- Analysts project $213.8 billion in full fiscal 2026 revenue and are eyeing $72.9 billion in fiscal Q1 2027 guidance.
Why it matters: Four hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft — are budgeting a combined $650 billion in AI infrastructure this year, making Nvidia's print the cleanest read on whether that capex is holding. The new swing factor is memory cost pressure on gross margins. With investors reserving major reactions for GTC in March, a sell-the-news crowd could get caught offside.
