As Iran war’s said to end, Kissinger’s joke finally has come true
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- The US and Iran are set to sign a framework deal in Switzerland on June 19 ending the war that began with 12 days of bombing in June 2025 and escalated on February 28 into a three-way conflict with Israel, though the source argues all three sides have lost.
- The war descended into stalemate after an April 8 ceasefire meant to last two weeks has now endured more than seven, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed and crude oil prices falling back toward roughly $80 per barrel—25% below the early May peak.
- Iran's regime survived the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many top officials but is politically and economically weak: inflation is higher than before the war, most nuclear enrichment facilities have been destroyed, and proxy militias in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen are depleted.
- Netanyahu's coalition collapsed when ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew over military conscription exemptions; the Knesset dissolved on May 20 with elections expected in September (deadline October 27), and Netanyahu announced the IDF will expand Gaza control from 60% to 70% in defiance of the Trump-imposed October ceasefire.
- Trump faces no attractive military options and a unified Gulf Arab front—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman all want the war ended to restore oil exports and lure back foreign residents and tourists.
- China emerges as the sole winner, with the source arguing credible nuclear inspections will require Beijing's involvement and that the war's damage to US power and reputation extends Chinese influence in the Middle East.
Why it matters: The deal's only concrete achievement is reopening the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls and extending the ceasefire by 60 days—beyond that, the source attests nothing has been agreed, and the Iranian nuclear program's fate will require a new round of negotiations likely measured in months or years, with China positioned as the indispensable broker for any credible outcome.
