El Niño heat could kill half a million people by February — SkimNews
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- Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects 450,000 heat-related deaths globally by February from the record-breaking El Niño — 240,000 of those between September and February alone — based on the historical temperature-to-mortality relationship applied to ECMWF seasonal forecasts.
- Emily Grover-Kopec of the Rhodium Group says most deaths in the next six months will strike the southern hemisphere, where extra heat coincides with spring and summer, with a second wave expected to move into the northern hemisphere after February.
- Africa will be hit hardest by the report's estimates, with over 30,000 extra deaths projected in Nigeria alone, plus 19,000 in Indonesia, 16,000 in India and 13,000 in Brazil over the same six-month window.
- The model relies on a U-shaped temperature-mortality curve derived from a 2022 study that divided the world into 24,000 regions, whose precise shape varies based on local adaptation and access to cooling.
- Christopher Callahan of Indiana University Bloomington called the results "plausible," noting the heat-mortality link is "consistent and reliable," but flagged that El Niño also drives wildfires, infectious disease and flooding — so the total toll may exceed the heat-only figure.
- The report stratifies risk by age and finds adults 65 and older are the most vulnerable group, followed by children aged 4 and under, with effects across all three age bands.
- Raquel Nunes at the University of Warwick framed the projection as "a call to strengthen anticipatory governance, preparedness and targeted adaptation measures" rather than an immutable death toll.
Why it matters: The 450,000 figure counts only heat-related deaths, and Grover-Kopec explicitly warns mortality will "get bigger" once the wave shifts north in spring — yet the report is positioned as actionable, with named interventions (health-worker visits, water distribution, fans and AC) that governments in Nigeria, India, Indonesia and Brazil could deploy before temperatures peak.
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