This El Niño will be the hottest by a huge margin
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- Berkeley Earth analyzed 14 forecast models, with 90% predicting the tropical Pacific will reach a sea surface temperature anomaly unseen in 150 years of observations, peaking at 3.6°C above average versus the 2015-16 record of 2.75°C
- Zeke Hausfather told a July 23 media briefing that even the median model expects to beat the record by 0.8°C, calling the forecast "record-shattering and unprecedented" and saying it was "one of the few times a climate forecast has truly shocked him"
- The current El Niño has already reached 2.1°C above-average sea surface temperatures within its first month — an "explosive onset" vastly outpacing the 1997-98 super El Niño's 1.6°C at the same stage
- Robert Rohde warned the 20-year global temperature average will likely exceed 1.5°C by 2029, failing the Paris Agreement goal, with 2027 global temperatures projected to hit 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels — up from 1.5°C in 2024
- Regional forecasts flag southern China flooding risk on the Yangtze (the 1997-98 event's floods killed more than 3,000 people), drought risk in India, southern and central Africa, and parts of Central and South America
- Commodity prices for rice, coffee, and chocolate could rise globally as drought hits major production regions, affecting supply chains in less-exposed countries like the UK
- Coral bleaching is expected this year as the massive Pacific warm-water swath heats ocean ecosystems worldwide
Why it matters: Berkeley Earth projects the 20-year global temperature average will exceed 1.5°C by 2029 — effectively breaching the Paris Agreement's central warming target — and that's before this super El Niño's compounding heat. Documented regional patterns from past super El Niños, including Yangtze floods that killed over 3,000 and African/Indian droughts that spike commodity prices, now face a forecast event 0.8°C stronger than the prior record.
