El Niño Is Back. And Worse Than Ever.
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- El Niño is entering a potential super phase this year, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific possibly rising 3°C above normal — exceeding the 2°C threshold for a 'super El Niño' and surpassing any recorded event.
- Climate Prediction Center gives a 69 percent chance that this year’s El Niño will be the strongest since 1950, signaling an unusually high probability of extreme global climate impacts.
- Pacific Ocean warmth is building earlier than usual, with significant temperature anomalies already observed in August, months before El Niño typically peaks in November or December.
- Chico Harlan notes that when Pacific waters in a key equatorial zone retain excess heat, it triggers atmospheric changes that reorganize global weather patterns, comparable only to seasonal shifts in scale.
- Historical El Niño events have been linked to catastrophic global consequences, including the 1877 event associated with a famine that killed an estimated 50 million people across India, China, Ethiopia, and Brazil.
Why it matters: A 3°C anomaly would inject unprecedented heat into the climate system, increasing the likelihood of record-breaking global temperatures in 2027 and intensifying droughts, floods, and storms worldwide — particularly in regions already vulnerable to climate extremes. The early onset amplifies risks before many systems are prepared.
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