Study Projects 450,000 El Niño Heat Deaths by February — SkimNews
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- Climate Impact Lab report at the University of Chicago projects roughly 450,000 heat-related deaths globally by February, combining 240,000 additional deaths forecast for September through February with deaths already attributed to El Niño since June.
- Emily Grover-Kopec at the Rhodium Group says the estimate is meant to be "actionable" — prompting pre-positioning of health workers, water, fans, and air conditioning for vulnerable populations before peak heat arrives.
- Africa is projected to bear the heaviest toll, with Nigeria alone expected to record over 30,000 extra heat deaths in the next six months, followed by Indonesia (19,000), India (16,000), and Brazil (13,000).
- India and Pakistan are singled out by Grover-Kopec as countries that "could be hit especially hard," with initial southern hemisphere impacts giving way to a second wave as El Niño persists into the northern hemisphere's spring.
- Adults 65 and older are the most heat-vulnerable group in the analysis, followed by infants under 4, though Grover-Kopec says effects span "all three age groups" the report studied.
- Christopher Callahan at Indiana University Bloomington calls the findings "plausible" but warns the 450,000 figure captures only direct heat deaths — El Niño also drives Indonesian wildfires, South American infectious disease, and western US flooding.
- Raquel Nunes at the University of Warwick urges readers to treat the report as "a call to strengthen anticipatory governance, preparedness and targeted adaptation measures," rather than a fixed death toll.
Why it matters: Vulnerable populations — especially adults over 65 and infants — face the steepest projected risk, with Nigeria's 30,000 expected deaths topping the country list and India and Pakistan singled out as likely flashpoints. Because the report counts only direct heat mortality, Callahan notes El Niño-driven wildfires, South American infectious disease, and western US flooding add further deaths beyond the 450,000 figure.
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