US Drafts Post-War Middle East Plan to Counter Iran — SkimNews
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- Axios, citing two US officials and two other sources familiar, reported the Trump administration has begun drafting a post-war Middle East strategy aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power by tightening pressure on Tehran and expanding normalization between Israel and neighboring countries.
- The plan remains in early stages but could set US Middle East policy for the remainder of Trump's presidency, with discussions likely impacted by upcoming US midterm elections and Israel's October legislative elections.
- Three pillars under discussion include building "regional alignment" among US allies to deter and constrain Iran, winding down the regional consequences of the October 7, 2023 attacks, and broadening the Abraham Accords while pursuing Saudi Arabia normalization.
- The regional alignment pillar would formalize US efforts since the 1979 Iranian Revolution to curb Tehran's influence via Gulf alliances, adding closer defense and security coordination among allies into a more structured framework.
- Saudi-Israel normalization has stalled because Riyadh ties any move to tangible progress on Gaza and Palestinian statehood; the plan's Gaza phase includes reconstruction of the Strip, Hamas disarmament, and establishment of a transitional administration.
- Additional elements under discussion include a possible US role as guarantor of the regional alignment, an Israel-Syria security agreement following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime at the end of 2024, and an Israel-Lebanon deal limiting Hezbollah's military capabilities under the 2024 ceasefire framework.
Why it matters: The plan converts decades of ad-hoc Gulf alliance-building into a structured defense framework while keeping Saudi normalization hostage to Gaza progress — a condition that has blocked the deal since 2020. With midterm elections looming and the Iran war reshaping regional dynamics, the strategy's early-stage status leaves its trajectory dependent on political timing in both Washington and Jerusalem.
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