Australia Should Embrace China, Not Contain It — SkimNews
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- China is Australia's largest trading partner, absorbing one-third of Australian exports, supporting 570,000 direct jobs, and driving $200 billion in annual two-way trade — meaning Beijing "already has the ability to subdue Australia economically without firing a shot."
- A July 6 Chinese submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific demonstrated capability to reach the Australian mainland, yet the New York Times reported the US conducts 5–10 Minuteman and Trident test launches over the Pacific every year, including a March launch from California to the Marshall Islands.
- The Lowy Institute's June 2025 analysis by Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance concluded China's PLA is on track to become a "world class force" by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic, completing Xi Jinping's "great rejuvenation."
- Former Australian ambassador to China Dr. Geoff Raby warned the AUKUS deal sends "a very clear signal to the leadership in China that Australia now sees China as an enemy," arguing Australia must lean on diplomacy rather than military posturing.
- Regional neighbors reject confrontation: the author notes Japan has its own East Asia preoccupations, South Korea wants détente with North Korea and China, Taiwan wants the status quo, and only the Philippines — described as "weak and brash" — favors a fight with China.
- The author invokes Paul Keating's metaphor that containing China would be "like throwing a handful of toothpicks at the mountain," framing US Pacific retrenchment after Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran as irreversible and Australia's containment posture as a "fool's errand."
Why it matters: Australia's policy establishment is actively debating whether AUKUS and Pacific mini-alliances constitute deterrence or provocation toward Beijing — its biggest customer. With $200 billion in bilateral trade and 570,000 Australian jobs tied to that relationship, choosing military containment over diplomatic engagement carries a concrete economic cost that the article argues the US, retreating from the Pacific, cannot compensate for.
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