China's Direct Strike Threat to Australia Growing: Lowy
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- Lowy Institute report (June 14) found China is capable of a direct missile strike on Australia, with the threat growing as Beijing amasses long-range and hypersonic weapons and builds South China Sea islands
- DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile (5,000–8,000km range per the US military) and potentially a conventionally armed ICBM would expand China's strike capacity as they grow in service numbers over the next decade
- DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile could reach northern Australia if deployed from China's artificial South China Sea islands
- Sam Roggeveen, Lowy Institute's International Security Program director, called the PLA's growth the most important development for Australian security since the collapse of the Soviet Union
- Albanese's government has been reluctant to publicly discuss a direct attack on the Australian mainland, despite reshaping military strategy three years ago to deter an adversary from its northern approaches
- The direct strike threat would "dramatically escalate" if China fields crewed or drone long-range bombers or deploys bombers or missiles on Pacific islands near Australia
Why it matters: The Lowy report puts public pressure on Canberra to confront a threat the government has avoided discussing, naming specific missile systems — the DF-26 from South China Sea islands, the DF-27 and a possible conventionally armed ICBM — as the operational basis. With China's strike capacity set to grow over the next decade, Australia's quiet posture on a mainland attack scenario becomes harder to sustain, even as cable-cutting, cyberattacks, and maritime interdiction remain the more immediate risks.
