Australia Urged to Pivot From China Containment to Engagement — SkimNews
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- Greg Sheridan, foreign editor of The Australian, proposes drawing up "common battle plans" with the US for conflict with China and praises AUKUS minister Richard Marles for "US alliance management," arguing Australia should shelter under the US nuclear umbrella via HMAS Stirling.
- The Lowy Institute released a June analysis by Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance projecting China as a "world class force" by 2049, the 100th anniversary of Mao's revolutionary victory, citing growth in PLA land, navy, air, marine, rocket and cyber capabilities.
- China's July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the Pacific confirmed mainland-Australia reach, though the New York Times reported the US routinely conducts five to 10 Minuteman and Trident test launches over the Pacific each year.
- China is Australia's largest trading partner, absorbing one-third of Australian exports, supporting 570,000 direct jobs and $200 billion in annual two-way trade — giving Beijing "the ability to subdue Australia economically without firing a shot," the author writes.
- Former ambassador Geoff Raby says AUKUS "sends a very clear signal to the leadership in China that Australia now sees China as an enemy," urging a shift from "national security rhetoric and military posturing" to diplomacy and statecraft.
- The author casts the current pro-US, anti-Beijing posture as "a fool's errand," arguing US Pacific power is "manifestly waning" after Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran, and cites Paul Keating's image of "throwing a handful of toothpicks at the mountain."
Why it matters: Australia's $200 billion annual trade relationship with China — its single largest — now sits in tension with an AUKUS submarine program and US-aligned military integration that costs tens of billions. The essay crystallizes a genuine Australian strategic split between Marles-style containment advocates and Keating-style engagement, where the loser in a wrong bet is either economic access to Beijing or decades of sunk defense spending.
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