Bitcoin eyes $63K as US CPI relief sends September Fed rate pause odds to 60% — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 on Wednesday, erasing the day's gains after July US CPI printed in line with expectations at 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
- CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed 60% odds the Fed holds rates at 3.50–3.75% at its September meeting, up from 30% a month ago, after Friday's –23k jobs report.
- Rekt Capital warned $63,000 support is 'progressively weakening,' with bounce magnitudes shrinking across successive tests from 6.27% to 5.83% to 3.18% to 1.15%.
- Bitfinex Alpha noted Bitcoin has not recorded a single daily close above $65,000 since July 26 despite six attempts between August 5 and 10.
- Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs said downside options strikes near $60,000 are costing more than equivalent upside strikes near $70,000 on end-August expiry.
- Fabian Dori of Sygnum Bank said the in-line CPI plus weak payrolls points to 'gradual cooling without a recession scare or a fresh hawkish re-pricing,' with Thursday's PPI as the next test.
- Bitcoin's 50-month EMA sits at $65,827 and has flipped to resistance, per Rekt Capital's prior warning that bear-market history is repeating.
Why it matters: Cooling Fed hike odds should be tailwind fuel for crypto, yet Bitcoin keeps failing at $65,000 and $63,000 support keeps weakening — DWF Labs' Grachev flags that downside options near $60,000 cost more than upside near $70,000, meaning institutional desks are paying up to hedge a drop even as macro odds turn favorable. The disconnect between improving rate expectations and deteriorating chart structure is the trade.
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