Johor state election: Five battles that will show whether Malaysia’s political tide has turned
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Johor's July 11 election features 172 candidates contesting 56 assembly seats and serves as the first of four state polls in 10 months, giving Anwar Ibrahim just eight months after to call a general election before his term ends in early 2028.
- Perikatan Nasional is contesting only 33 seats (not the originally planned 56) after PAS paused cooperation with Bersatu in early June, while Bersatu itself is fielding just 16 candidates — down from 33 in 2022 — following the sacking of deputy president Hamzah Zainudin in February and a wave of defections to his new Parti Wawasan Negara.
- The Chinese vote in Johor Jaya and Tangkak has become a national trend bellwether after Sabah saw a sharp drop in Chinese support for PH, with BN's MCA targeting seats where PH-DAP won by slim margins in 2022.
- Bukit Kepong will test whether Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin remains a force in his home state, while Layang-Layang — never lost by BN — has handed its candidacy to MCA for the first time after UMNO's incumbent defected to defend his seat.
- Larkin is framed as a battle of would-be chief ministers between BN-UMNO's Hairi Mad Shah and PH-Amanah's Suhaizan Kayat, reflecting urban Malay anxieties about redevelopment and rising living costs in Johor Bahru's rapidly developing "golden circle."
- Puteri Wangsa and Bukit Batu are the testing grounds for new parties: MUDA defends its sole 2022 win without its former PH pact, while Rafizi Ramli's new Parti Bersama Malaysia targets Bukit Batu — where PKR clung on by just 137 votes in 2022, the smallest margin of all 56 contests.
- PAS is fielding only 11 candidates (down from 15 in 2022) but is aiming at Endau on the northeast coast to test whether its growing influence in Pahang, Perak and Selangor extends into Johor.
Why it matters: Anwar's coalition enters Johor after PH won just one seat at Sabah's November polls — a stark warning. PN's PAS-Bersatu split has cut its combined Johor slate to 33 of 56 seats, handing smaller parties like MUDA and Rafizi Ramli's new Parti Bersama Malaysia room to poach urban progressive voters in seats like Puteri Wangsa and Bukit Batu where margins were razor-thin.
