2026 U.S. Open odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- The 2026 U.S. Open tees off Thursday at 6:35 a.m. ET at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., with Scottie Scheffler installed as the +550 favorite via FanDuel as he pursues the Career Grand Slam.
- Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+1300) follow Scheffler on the odds board; J.J. Spaun is the defending champion and Brooks Koepka won this event at Shinnecock in 2018.
- SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and correctly predicted 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
- Jon Rahm is the model pick to fade despite being the third favorite at +1300, with the projection calling for him to finish outside the top 5 after not placing better than T-7 at the U.S. Open since his 2021 win.
- Cameron Young (+2200) is flagged as a top-5 contender despite never winning a major, with two wins, six top-10 finishes this season, and a T-3 at the Masters backing the call.
- McIlroy, fresh off his Masters victory and aiming for his first U.S. Open title in 15 years, sits at +1200, with Aaron Rai — the PGA Championship winner — a longer shot at +6500.
- The model is also targeting several longshots including one pick going off around 75-1, with the full projected leaderboard available only on SportsLine.
Why it matters: The model is publicly fading the third betting favorite (Rahm at +1300) and elevating an unproven major performer (Young at +2200), creating a sharp public-vs.-model split that bettors must weigh against a 17-major track record — Scheffler's Career Grand Slam pursuit adds the storyline stakes, while Rahm's lone top-five major finish since 2023 gives the fade empirical grounding.
