2026 U.S. Open odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- The 2026 U.S. Open tees off Thursday at 6:35 a.m. ET at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., where Brooks Koepka won at 1 over in 2018 and J.J. Spaun is the defending champion.
- Scottie Scheffler is the FanDuel favorite at +550 as he attempts to complete the Career Grand Slam, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1200), Jon Rahm (+1500), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Tommy Fleetwood (+1800).
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure and credited with nailing 17 majors including the 2026 Masters, simulated the 2026 U.S. Open 10,000 times and projects Rahm — the 2021 U.S. Open winner who hasn't finished better than T-7 here since — to land outside the top 5.
- Cameron Young, listed at +2200 despite never having won a major, is the model's top-5 contender pick, buoyed by two wins and six top-10 finishes this year plus a T-3 at the Masters.
- The model is also targeting at least one longshot going off around 75-1, with the full projected leaderboard gated behind SportsLine's membership.
- Rory McIlroy and Aaron Rai, the year's first two major winners (Masters and PGA Championship respectively), are both in the 2026 U.S. Open field.
Why it matters: For bettors building 2026 U.S. Open cards, the model's contrarian calls — fading a top-three favorite in Rahm and backing a +2200 non-major-winner in Young — directly invert the FanDuel market's pricing, and its stated track record of 17 majors (including three in 2025 and the 2026 Masters) is the credibility hook. If the model's framing holds, the value sits well below Scheffler at +550.
