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A HARC analysis links Texas’ fast-growing data-center sector to a modeled five-year pollution scenario that would undo decades of air-quality gains, depending heavily on how developers secure power for their massive electricity demand.

What is a key fact in this story? (1)

**HARC** modeled all planned Texas data centers drawing grid power at the anticipated grid mix, projecting within five years that soot would more than triple to its highest level since 2006, NOx would rise 136% toward 2004 levels, and CO2 would climb 90% above 2025; the report says the combined pollution would erase decades of gains.

What is a key fact in this story? (2)

**HARC** modeled sharply divergent outcomes by power source: pairing grid electricity with onsite wind or solar makes NOx emissions up to 10 times lower, while onsite gas engines yield its highest-pollution scenario as developers seek to avoid lengthy grid connections.

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HARC Sees Texas Data-Center Soot More Than Triple — SkimNews

By The Verge · Summarized & edited by Kapil Samant · 2026-10-21

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HARC modeled all planned Texas data centers drawing grid power at the anticipated grid mix, projecting within five years that soot would more than triple to its highest level since 2006, NOx would rise 136% toward 2004 levels, and CO2 would climb 90% above 2025; the report says the combined pollution would erase decades of gains.
HARC modeled sharply divergent outcomes by power source: pairing grid electricity with onsite wind or solar makes NOx emissions up to 10 times lower, while onsite gas engines yield its highest-pollution scenario as developers seek to avoid lengthy grid connections.
HARC tested three data-center energy-demand projections, and the report says many proposed projects are speculative and could fall by the wayside.
Texas has 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction data-center capacity, making it the leading market among states by that power-draw measure.
Wood Mackenzie reported in March that Texas has four times more proposed data-center capacity using onsite power generation than any other state.
John Hall, HARC’s CEO, warned that there is a good chance children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air and said decades of work by Texas and its transportation sector to reduce emissions is at risk.

Why it matters: Power-source choice, not construction alone, determines the scale of Texas’s air-quality reversal: pairing grid power with onsite wind or solar lowers modeled NOx by as much as 10 times, while onsite gas yields the highest-pollution outcome. That makes developers’ choices around 26 GW of existing and under-construction capacity consequential for Texas residents and decades of emissions gains.