Amazon deforestation at stake in Brazil's October 4 vote — SkimNews
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- Amazon deforestation fell from 11,594 square kilometres in 2022 to 5,731 square kilometres between August 2024 and July 2025 under Lula's restoration of environmental agencies, reversing the surge that peaked during Jair Bolsonaro's presidency at a 15-year high in 2021.
- Flávio Bolsonaro refused to acknowledge climate change exists in a recent TV interview, instead referring to "extreme climate events" and "cyclical periods," and as a senator proposed legislation that critics said threatened Brazil's native vegetation.
- Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign pledges zero illegal deforestation by 2029, but ecologist Philip Fearnside of Brazil's National Institute for Amazonian Research said the more likely path is legalizing ongoing deforestation rather than stopping it.
- APIB, Brazil's largest Indigenous organization, warned a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would mark "the return of a death project," fearing he would open Indigenous lands to critical-mineral extraction.
- Lula's government has drawn its own environmental criticism for promoting the BR-319 Amazon highway and backing new oil exploration near the river basin's mouth, projects that could drive deforestation and lock in fossil fuel production.
- Climate Observatory's Claudio Angelo warned a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would resemble Trump's second term in its climate posture, with the senator's plan to appoint five new Supreme Court justices removing political constraints and enabling faster enactment of pro-development laws.
Why it matters: Lula's enforcement nearly halved Amazon deforestation — from 11,594 km² in 2022 to 5,731 km² by July 2025 — and Lula also launched a self-sustaining fund to pay tropical nations for keeping forests standing. A Flávio Bolsonaro victory could reverse those gains by appointing five new Supreme Court justices, reopening Indigenous lands to mining, and pulling Brazil out of the global fossil-fuel transition just as its 4.2-million-km² rainforest nears a tipping point.
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