Brazil Election to Decide Amazon's Fate — SkimNews
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- Jair Bolsonaro's presidency (2019–2023) drove Amazon deforestation to a 15-year high in 2021, with annual loss surging from 7,536 sq km in 2018 to 11,594 sq km in 2022.
- Lula's return to office in 2023 restored environmental agencies and halved Amazon deforestation to 5,731 sq km between August 2024 and July 2025.
- Flávio Bolsonaro refused to acknowledge climate change in a recent TV interview, instead referring to "extreme climate events," and as a senator proposed legislation critics said threatened Brazil's native vegetation.
- Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign pledges zero illegal deforestation by 2029, but ecologist Philip Fearnside warned the "more likely" path is "to just legalise the deforestation that's going on."
- Flávio Bolsonaro has ties to Donald Trump and has said he would appoint five new supreme court justices, potentially facing fewer political constraints than his father.
- Brazil's largest Indigenous organization, APIB, said a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would open Indigenous lands to critical-mineral extraction and mark "the return of a death project."
- Lula's environmental record has drawn criticism for promoting BR-319 Amazon highway improvements and new oil exploration near the river basin's mouth, though experts still see his administration as the better option.
Why it matters: The Amazon's 4.2 million sq km of rainforest stores massive carbon stocks and regulates global climate, so a Flávio Bolsonaro win could push annual deforestation back above 11,000 sq km and pull Brazil out of international climate diplomacy, while Lula's continuation preserves recent gains but leaves contested fossil fuel and infrastructure projects intact.
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