Trump Holds Leverage Over Netanyahu Before Israeli Election
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- Netanyahu faces an election in roughly two months with polls suggesting his right-wing, religious, and ultra-nationalist coalition may fall short of a parliamentary majority, and losing power would strip his ability to shape the justice system where he stands trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.
- Trump said this week, "It's most appropriate for me to stay out of Israeli elections, but I may endorse somebody," having passed up multiple prior chances to champion Netanyahu, and is reportedly frustrated that Netanyahu oversold the prospect of a U.S.-Israeli victory in the Iran war.
- Jared Kushner recently concluded meetings in Cairo with Hamas and in Israel with Netanyahu on a Gaza demilitarization plan, giving Trump a potential condition to attach to any endorsement: Netanyahu agreeing to the Gaza framework.
- During his first term, Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, hosted Netanyahu at the White House 15 days before an Israeli election, and appeared on pro-Netanyahu billboards — interventions the authors call the "gold medal" for U.S. presidential meddling.
- Trump has also actively pressed in his second term for the president of Israel to pardon Netanyahu of the charges he is standing trial for.
- J.D. Vance has reportedly lost patience with Netanyahu, and opposition is growing within the MAGA movement over Trump's Middle East focus and foreign aid commitments, complicating any large new endorsement package such as a 10-year military assistance memorandum.
- The authors' bottom line: barring a major Netanyahu concession, Trump will do the minimum on the election, claim credit if Netanyahu wins, and blame Netanyahu if he loses to Gadi Eisenkot.
Why it matters: Netanyahu's election is a legal lifeline — losing power could end his ability to influence the justice system prosecuting him on bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges, and possibly send him to prison. Trump's endorsement is a real lever: he can trade it for Netanyahu's agreement to the Gaza demilitarization plan Kushner just negotiated in Cairo, or simply let Netanyahu twist, with Vance and the MAGA base already pulling Trump toward disengagement from Middle East entanglements.
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