IN FOCUS: 'I cannot go back' - Myanmar refugees fear repatriation as country gets cosier with Malaysia, Thailand — SkimNews
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- Malaysia's Home Ministry announced plans to return 5,000 Myanmar refugees, with the first 1,476 people — ethnicities undisclosed — scheduled to depart Sept. 29 aboard two Myanmar Navy warships and a hospital ship.
- PM Anwar Ibrahim said on Sept. 16 he invited Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing for an official visit in exchange for Myanmar's government accepting the return of Rohingya Muslim refugees, framing it as a friendship and trade arrangement.
- Thailand is leading efforts to normalise ties with Myanmar both bilaterally and through ASEAN; Min Aung Hlaing made an official visit Aug. 6, and Thailand has enacted a new law authorising swift deportation of foreign nationals who violate domestic regulations.
- Thai authorities raided an undocumented Karen community in Kaeng Krachan National Park days after the visit, arresting 28 villagers — including children and pregnant women — and slated 26 people for deportation to Myanmar.
- UNHCR figures from February show Malaysia hosts 193,824 Myanmar refugees (126,144 Rohingya, 15,774 Chin, 33,002 from other ethnic groups) and Thailand holds over 90,000 — mainly Karen, Karenni and Burmese — at nine government-run border shelters.
- Myanmar's 2024 conscription law requires men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve at least two years under military command, which refugees cited as the reason they cannot return — 29-year-old Mon State refugee Ye Htet told CNA he fears he would be forced to fight and likely killed if sent back.
- Neither Malaysia nor Thailand has ratified the UN Refugee Convention or formally recognises refugees, leaving an estimated 283,824 Myanmar nationals across both countries without legal protection against repatriation to a country where the military recently searched every house in some villages for rebel fighters.
- Thailand is scheduled to assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2028, and analysts told CNA Myanmar's government views Bangkok's warming ties as a chance to gain a powerful regional ally and reshape ASEAN's approach to the post-2021 coup regime.
Why it matters: The first 1,476 Myanmar refugees are slated to depart Malaysia on Sept. 29 on Myanmar Navy vessels — a concrete transfer of people that converts diplomatic warming into enforced return. Neither host country recognises refugees under international law, so roughly 283,824 Myanmar nationals across Malaysia and Thailand have no legal shield if the voluntary framing collapses, and Thailand's new deportation law and Aug. 6 visit by junta leader Min Aung Hlaing signal the regional normalisation is already operational.
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