Traders on Kalshi now think it's likely that the S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Kalshi traders now price a 2-in-3 chance the S&P 500 crosses 8,000 in 2026, with the index sitting just 3.6% away from that level as of Wednesday's close
- Kalshi speculators also give a 1-in-3 chance the index crosses 8,200 this year, signaling rising conviction in continued upside
- The S&P 500 ended its more than 5.5% four-day rally on Wednesday, with the surge to new records sharply recalibrating prediction market odds
- The four-day rally was fueled by easing US-Iran tensions, a strong earnings season, and the near-collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund
- Truist Wealth chief market strategist Keith Lerner called the June and July pullback in AI momentum names a 'healthy reset,' writing that rising earnings estimates, resilient growth, and improved market participation are not conditions typically associated with the end of a bull market
- After the S&P 500 surged in April and May from lows during the US-Iran war, the index was flat in late June and July as investors rotated out of key AI momentum names, though broader rotation into other stocks masked the turmoil
- Kalshi contracts resolve using Google Finance data, and CNBC disclosed a commercial relationship with Kalshi including customer acquisition and a minority investment
Why it matters: Kalshi's shift to 67% odds for 8,000 in 2026 places continued S&P 500 gains as the base case for prediction market speculators, with the index sitting just 3.6% away from the target. Analysts like Truist's Keith Lerner frame the June-July AI selloff as a healthy reset, not a bull market death knell, implying structural support beyond momentum trades.
