Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin traded at $71,556 Thursday, up 3.26% on the day within a $68,858–$72,408 band, extending Wednesday's 8.7% jump — its strongest one-day move since March 4 and highest price since June 1.
- Myriad's "pump to $84K or dump to $55K" market flipped from roughly 70% bearish just days ago to a near coin flip — currently 52% bullish $84K, 48% bearish $55K.
- Polymarket's flagship 2026 price market was pricing a 56% chance BTC hits $55,000 before year-end and just 51% odds of reaching $75,000 as of last week.
- Kalshi traders gave Bitcoin only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August and 31% at $70,000 — both thresholds the rally blew through on Wednesday.
- A separate Polymarket contract put BTC above $75,000 for August at 47% on roughly $12 million in volume.
- Near-term prediction markets got squeezed while year-end contracts barely moved; the Myriad flip is "less a forecast than a recap of who got caught blindsided."
- The next resistance sits at $70,284, the lower edge of a resistance band — a daily close above opens room to $73,245, while losing $68,000 pulls Bitcoin back inside the same compressive wedge that preceded October 2025 and January 2026 crashes.
Why it matters: Near-term prediction markets got punished for doubting the rally while year-end contracts barely budged — Kalshi's 31% odds for a $70K August and Polymarket's 51% year-end $75K bet now look exposed, and a failure to hold $70,284 would drag Bitcoin back into the wedge that preceded two prior crashes.
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