Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels
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- Bitcoin rallied more than 20% this week to heights not seen since May, trading above $77,000 at the time of reporting.
- Kalshi traders estimate bitcoin will end 2026 around $75,000 — an upgrade from the $66,000 most-likely year-end price before Wednesday's rally — based on yes/no contracts resolving at midnight Jan. 1, 2027 using CF Benchmarks price data.
- President Trump, crypto executives, and regulators at a White House event pushed for Congress to approve the market structure Clarity Act, one of two catalysts behind the surge.
- The rally's other key catalyst was a U.S. Treasury intervention to ease a sell-off in the bond market, which relieved pressure on risk assets.
Why it matters: Kalshi's $75,000 year-end forecast sits below bitcoin's current $77,000+ price, meaning prediction market traders — even after upgrading their outlook by roughly $9,000 post-rally — see the 20%+ surge as largely priced in rather than the start of a sustained run to new highs. The disconnect between the rally's narrative (Treasury support plus regulatory momentum on the Clarity Act) and speculators' actual year-end bets is the real signal: catalysts helped, but traders aren't paying for much further upside by Jan. 1, 2027.
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