Brent breaks $100 as Iran, Houthi strikes hit supply — SkimNews
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- Brent crude climbed nearly 3% to $100.79 a barrel on Wednesday, the first time above $100 since July 24
- West Texas Intermediate rose over 3% to $95.84 a barrel, its highest level since early June, leaving both benchmarks up 60%+ year-to-date and roughly 10% this month
- U.S. Central Command struck five Iranian crude-oil vessels—four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports—according to a late-Tuesday statement
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship twice in two days; Tehran said it struck a U.S. base in Jordan, eight ships (including two U.S. Navy vessels), and eight oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz
- Saudi Aramco halted operations at some refineries after Houthi rebels attacked energy and civilian sites in Jazan, Najran, Abha, and Khamis Mushait, wounding 73 people
- Fed-funds futures traders priced a 39% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike next week, down from over 60% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool
- The August CPI report due Friday will determine whether the oil surge or softer underlying inflation dominates the Fed's calculus, per FXTM's Lukman Otunuga
Why it matters: The Fed's September decision now hinges on Friday's CPI: a hot print could revive the 60%+ odds of a 25-bps hike that oil's surge has eroded to 39%, while a soft print might let the central bank look through energy-driven inflation. With crude up 60% year-to-date, the pass-through from oil into broader prices is the wildcard for the rate path.
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