Novo CEO sees weight-loss pills catching up to injectables by 2030 — SkimNews
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- Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar said weight-loss pills could capture as much as 50% of the global obesity drug market by 2030, well above Wall Street forecasts of 14-40%
- Novo has five oral treatments in development after beating Eli Lilly to market with the first obesity pill earlier this year, while competitors' pipelines contain eight injectables for every two pills
- Oral therapies now account for about a third of US obesity prescriptions following the Wegovy pill's rollout, with Novo capturing more than 80% of new oral prescriptions according to company presentations
- Novo's obesity pill generated nearly 5.5 billion Danish crowns (US$843 million) in first-half sales
- Novo's shares have tumbled more than 70% from their peak as Eli Lilly overtook its market share following the 2021 launch of Wegovy
- Oral Wegovy is protected from generic competition into the 'mid and late 30s' through patents covering its SNAC delivery technology, addressing investor concerns over the semaglutide patent cliff in the early 2030s
Why it matters: Novo holds 80%+ of new US oral prescriptions and US$843 million in first-half pill sales while rivals run eight injectables for every two pills in development — a structural edge that underpins the CEO's 50% by-2030 forecast. Doustdar separately addressed the semaglutide patent cliff by pointing to SNAC delivery technology protection extending into the mid-to-late 2030s.
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