Indiana vs. Northwestern betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions, spread for Week 4 college football Friday — SkimNews
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- Indiana (3-0) and Northwestern (2-0) open Big Ten play Friday at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, with the Hoosiers defending their 16-0 national championship from last season.
- Indiana ranks No. 8 nationally in scoring offense (45 ppg) and No. 7 in scoring defense (8 ppg allowed) but is 0-3 against the spread this season, having yet to face a Big Ten-caliber opponent.
- Northwestern ranks No. 13 in scoring offense (41 ppg) and No. 3 in scoring defense (7 ppg allowed), and is 2-0 ATS after crushing Colorado 41-7 while favored by just 3.5 points last week.
- Transfer quarterbacks drive both offenses: Northwestern's Aidan Chiles (ex-Michigan State) threw for 241 yards with five total touchdowns vs. Colorado, while Indiana's Josh Hoover (ex-TCU) is completing 72.5% of passes with 10 TDs and zero interceptions.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, picks Northwestern +19.5 and projects the Wildcats to cover the spread in 55% of simulations.
Why it matters: Indiana is a defending national champion opening conference play as a heavy favorite, yet has failed to cover in all three games this season against weaker non-conference foes — a red flag for anyone laying 19.5 points. Northwestern's transfer-QB addition and top-three scoring defense give the projection model a lean toward the dog, even with the Hoosiers' straight-up talent edge.
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