Indiana vs. Northwestern betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions, spread for Week 4 college football Friday — SkimNews
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- Indiana enters Friday's Big Ten opener at 3-0 after a 38-0 win over Western Kentucky, riding the momentum of last season's 16-0 national championship under head coach Curt Cignetti
- Northwestern is 2-0 after a 41-7 demolition of Colorado and ranks third nationally in scoring defense (7 ppg allowed), trailing only Indiana (8 ppg allowed, seventh) in that category
- Indiana has failed to cover the spread in any of its three games this season (0-3 ATS), even as it leads the nation at No. 8 in scoring offense (45 ppg) behind transfer QB Josh Hoover (72.5% completion, 10 TDs, 0 INTs)
- Northwestern is 2-0 against the spread this season and went 7-4-2 ATS last season, covering in 15 straight games — a trend fueled by Michigan State transfer QB Aidan Chiles, who threw for 241 yards and five total touchdowns against Colorado
- The SportsLine Projection Model — on a 22-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks — simulates the matchup 10,000 times and picks Northwestern +20.5 to cover in 55% of simulations
Why it matters: Both teams are undefeated but only Northwestern has rewarded bettors against the spread this season (2-0 ATS vs. Indiana's 0-3 ATS). The 20.5-point spread is the largest gap between two undefeated Big Ten teams this early, and the model's lean toward Northwestern reflects a sharp disconnect between Indiana's dominant box-score stats and its inability to separate from inferior non-conference opponents by more than the number.
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