SportsLine Model Backs Over in Texas Tech vs. Houston — SkimNews
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- No. 13 Texas Tech hosts No. 22 Houston at 8 p.m. ET Friday at Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock in a Big 12 Conference opener, with both teams entering 2-0
- Texas Tech is a 7.5-point favorite over Houston, with the over/under set at 52.5 points
- SportsLine model, on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, projects 54 combined points and lands on the Over in more than half of its 10,000 simulations
- Texas Tech QB Will Hammond has completed 76.7% of his passes through two games, with the model projecting 249 more passing yards and two touchdowns against the Cougars
- Houston QB Conner Weigman has completed 69% of his throws for 425 yards and four touchdowns, and the Cougars are averaging nearly 600 yards per game
- Texas Tech has won the last seven meetings against Houston, including a 35-11 blowout last October, and both teams beat Oregon State this season (Tech 35-24, Houston 33-20)
- Both defenses are allowing over 7.8 yards per pass attempt through two games against lesser competition, fueling the model's offensive projection
Why it matters: The model has hit at a 61% clip on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, so its Over call on the 52.5 total carries weight for bettors sizing up Friday's lone ranked matchup. Texas Tech's 7.5-point spread reflects a seven-game win streak against Houston, but Houston's near-600-yard-per-game offense makes the total — not the spread — the sharper play according to the simulation.
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