Houston vs. Texas Tech prediction, odds, time: Week 3 college football Friday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Texas Tech hosts No. 22 Houston at 8 p.m. ET Friday at Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock as a 7.5-point favorite, down sharply from a lookahead line of -13.5
- SportsLine's projection model simulated the game 10,000 times and is picking the Over at 52.5, projecting 54 combined points and clearing in more than half of simulations
- Texas Tech has won the last seven meetings against Houston, including a 35-11 blowout last October; both teams enter 2-0 after beating Oregon State (Tech 35-24, Houston 33-20)
- Will Hammond (Texas Tech QB) has completed 76.7% of his passes through two games, and the model projects him for 249 yards and two TDs against the Cougars
- Conner Weigman (Houston QB) has completed 69% of his throws for 425 yards and four TDs, while Houston is averaging nearly 600 yards per game
- Both defenses are allowing high yards per pass attempt — Texas Tech 8.0, Houston 7.8 — fueling the model's shootout projection
Why it matters: The 6-point line shift from -13.5 to -7.5 signals meaningful late money on Houston despite Texas Tech's seven-game head-to-head winning streak, tightening what looked like a potential rout. The model's Over lean is grounded in two pass defenses allowing 8.0 and 7.8 yards per attempt and Over results in both teams' prior Oregon State games.
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