Kape vs Horiguchi UFC Fight Night Odds, Expert Picks
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- UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi takes place Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with the six-bout main card starting at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, following the promotion's White House event on Sunday.
- Manel Kape (22-7-0, ranked No. 2) is a -148 favorite over No. 5 Kyoji Horiguchi (+124) in a rematch of their December 2017 Rizin bout, which Horiguchi won by submission; the over/under is 4.5 rounds (Over -125).
- Kape has won seven of his last eight fights with three straight knockouts, tying him for the most KOs (five) and third-most knockdowns (seven) among UFC flyweights, and holds a 1-inch leg reach edge over Horiguchi.
- Horiguchi holds a Shotokan karate black belt, has not lost a fight in over four years, and returned to the UFC last year after winning championships in both Rizin and Bellator.
- On the main card, unbeaten Navajo Stirling is a -325 favorite over Ion Cutelaba (+260), while Murtazali Magomedov (-340) is the biggest favorite on the slate against Melsik Baghdasaryan (+270).
- SportsLine expert Kyle Marley is backing Allan Nascimento (-162) over Mitch Raposo in a flyweight prelim, citing a 5-inch reach edge, a four-fight win streak, and superior mat skills for Nascimento.
Why it matters: Horiguchi hasn't lost in over four years across Rizin, Bellator, and the UFC, and he already submitted Kape the first time they met in December 2017 — yet the betting line tags him as the +124 underdog. The framing buries the rematch angle and Horiguchi's karate-based grappling pedigree, making this a closer matchup than the favorite-tag suggests for bettors eyeing the underdog.
