Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction, odds, time: Week 5 college football picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- No. 5 Ohio State (3-1) is a 14.5-point road favorite at unbeaten Iowa in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS and Paramount+, coming off a 42-19 bounce-back win over Illinois after a 24-23 loss at Texas in Week 3.
- Iowa (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) is one of the early-season surprises of 2026, entering Saturday off a 20-19 road upset at Michigan as time expired with senior quarterback Hank Brown running Kirk Ferentz's offense effectively.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, projects 44 combined points and picks Under 45.5, a result that hits 52% of the time in simulations.
- Iowa's defense has allowed just 16 points against Northern Illinois and 13 at Iowa State, and Ferentz's teams have a long history of grinding out low-scoring games at Kinnick Stadium, per the model.
- The model also has one side of the 14.5-point spread hitting more than 50% of the time, with the full pick available only at SportsLine.
- The model enters Week 5 on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks and 32-24 across all top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
Why it matters: Bettors weighing Ohio State's 14.5-point road-favorite status get a clear counter-signal: Iowa's defense (13 points allowed at Iowa State, 16 vs. Northern Illinois) and Kinnick Stadium's history of low-scoring games have the model projecting 44 combined points — well below the 45.5 total. With Iowa unbeaten at 4-0 after a walk-off win at Michigan, the model-flagged spread side offers a second angle for independent punters.
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