SportsLine Model Backs Navy, Missouri for Week 5 Picks — SkimNews
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- Iowa Hawkeyes (14th-ranked, undefeated) open as 14.5-point home underdogs to No. 5 Ohio State in one of three ranked Week 5 matchups, per the latest college football lines.
- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
- Navy (+2.5, 45.5) covers against Air Force in well over 60% of model simulations as an A-rated pick; Air Force has lost six straight ATS at home versus FBS teams and five straight outright in the Commander-in-Chief's series, with Navy RB Vic Listorti projected for nearly 150 rushing yards.
- Missouri (+5, 57.5) covers at home versus No. 8 Florida in nearly 60% of simulations, with Missouri 23-3 in its last 26 home games and holding the fewest giveaways in the SEC (2); Florida has racked up 357 penalty yards, fourth-most in FBS, and is 0-3 SU as a road favorite vs. ranked squads since 2010.
- No. 2 Georgia lays the Week 5's biggest spread at 25 points against Vanderbilt, while No. 7 Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite at No. 16 Mississippi State in a second ranked SEC clash.
- Commander-in-Chief's Trophy first leg: Air Force is a 2.5-point home favorite over Navy in a noon ET kickoff on CBS and Paramount+.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model flags two live home underdogs — Navy (+2.5) and Missouri (+5) — each backed by specific situational trends (Air Force's 6-game home ATS slide, Missouri's 23-3 home record and SEC-low two giveaways). The most striking line is No. 14 Iowa getting 14.5 at home against No. 5 Ohio State despite being undefeated, the kind of number that anchors the week's card.
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